As per the data collected on 1st May 2020, Gujarat stands 4th in per capita Corona infections and 2nd in per capita Corona deaths in the state-wise analysis. 73 per million of the population is found to be infected and 3.5 per million is the registered death rate. This inspired us to look deep into the district-wise data within Gujarat. The district-wise data had several limitations posed for analysis. The census data and the forest data have a total of 26 districts, while the Corona infections and death data have a present total of 33 districts. Hence, these data are not correlated in order to avoid any incongruence.
Total Data for Analysis
Following details were sought, processed and analyzed.
Following observations were made from the above data.
- Ahmedabad has recorded more than 69% of total infections as well as deaths.
- Ahmedabad, Vadodara, and Surat have recorded almost 90% of infections and deaths in the state.
- Amreli, Devbhoomi Dwarka, and Junagadh have reported no infections.
- All the districts have reported less than 50 infections except Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara, Anand, and Rajkot.
- No other district has reported death in double-digit except Ahmedabad, Surat, and Vadodara (Ahmedabad has reported death in 3 digits).
- Amreli, Chhota Udaipur, Dahod, Dang, Devbhoomi Dwarka, Gir Somnath, Junagadh, Kheda, Mahisagar, Mehsana, Morbi, Narmada, Navsari, Porbandar, Sabarkantha, Surendranagar, and Tapi have reported no deaths.
Gender and Age based analysis
- While total deaths in Gujarat stand at 236, data related to Gender and Age was available only for 223 persons.
- Among these 223 deaths, 132 (59.19%) were males and only 91 (40.81%) were females.
- The average age of death was found to be 57.67 years.
- The youngest recorded death was a 14 months old boy and the oldest death was a 90 years old woman.
- Maximum male vulnerability (>31%) is found to be in 51 – 60 as well as 61 – 70 years.
- Maximum female vulnerability (>36%) is found to be in 51 – 60 and (>28%) in 61 – 70 years.
- More than 88% of deaths have occurred in the age group 41 – 80.
- A statement given by the CM on 28th April mentioned 85% co – morbidity, while the accumulated data from the press releases by the ministry of health and family welfare till the same date suggests that the co- morbidity of less than 70%.
- Out of the total 223 deaths, 71 persons were found to be suffering from diabetes.
- Out of the total 223 deaths, 96 persons were found to be suffering from hypertension.
Following graph indicates the age and gender wise distribution of deaths.
Acknowledgements
- This report was jointly prepared by Mr Ashutosh Jani, Mr Akil Kumar Hirpara and Mr Hardik Sarsavadiya.
Conclusions and Recommendations
- The above analysis brings out a few important points.
- The maximum spread is found among the 3 biggest cities, i.e. Ahmedabad, Surat, and Vadodara.
- These 3 cities are also the ones with higher rates of air travel.
- 51 – 70 is found to be the most vulnerable age group against Corona infections.
- Maximum deaths have occurred where the patient already had either diabetes or hypertension or both clubbed with some other diseases.
- Diabetes and Hypertension both are lifestyle diseases; hence it is important that people bring about substantial changes in their lifestyle.
References
- The details were accumulated from the press notes released by ministry of health and family welfare, Government of Gujarat, and from the following website. https://gujcovid19.gujarat.gov.in/.
Statistical Study Group 