State-wise Statistical Analysis of Corona Infections and Fatalities vis – a vis Demographic as well as Geographic Parameters – Phase 4.3

Abstract

This study is in continuation with the previous statistical analysis of COVID – 19 infections and various demographic and geographic parameters.

The present study has included many other parameters compared to the last study and hence, the present study is divided in three sections. The present report elaborates last and concluding section 3 of the study of Phase 4.

In the present report, following parameters are studied state wise.

  • Infected patients as % of Total population
  • Deaths as % of Total population
  • Population Density
  • Per Capita NSDP 2017 – 18 at current prices, Base year 2011 – 12
  • International tourists (by flights) as % of Total population
  • Domestic tourists (by flights) as % of Total population
  • Total tourists (by flights) as % of Total population
  • Extended Urban Agglomerate (Extended UA) population as % of Total population
  • Per Capita Waste Generation

The above data was recorded, sorted, processed and analyzed to find out the Correlation Factors for the above parameters.

Data studied

The present study uses the Corona Infections and death data collected on 4 June 2020. All the states and Union Territories were studied and are referred to as states hereinafter.

It should be noted that there is significant co – morbidity related to deaths, but the present study has included all the deaths in order to make the study more inclusive.

The observations reveal that Delhi, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Chandigarh are the top 5 states in terms of per capita Infections.

The rankings for per capita deaths reveal that Delhi, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Chandigarh are the top 5 states.

Here it should be noted that Chandigarh has registered only 5 deaths and 301 cases, but given the smaller population of only 10,55,450, it ranks 5th in per capita infections as well as death. Though the present study has included Chandigarh as the 5th ranking state, it is upto the discretion of the reader to consider it accordingly.

It may also be added that Chandigarh ranks 24th in Total Corona Infections and 19th in Total Corona deaths.

The following are the data collected for the correlations (the image can be downloaded and zoomed). (Please visit the references at the end of the study to know the sources of the information.)

State wise data of various parameters for the purpose of analysis against Corona infections and death

Based on the data shown above, the top ranking and bottom ranking states are categorically studied in terms of infections and deaths both and an effort is made to draw out the commonalities, which may further help in shaping the future course of action.

Observations

  • The bottom 5 states in terms of per capita infections are Daman & Diu, Lakshadweep, Sikkim, Meghalaya and Mizoram. Daman & Diu and Lakshadweep have recorded zero cases so far.
  • Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Daman & Diu, Goa, Lakshadweep, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Puducherry, Sikkim and Tripura have recorded zero deaths.
  • Delhi stands 1st in per capita Corona Infections with nearly 1408 Corona infected persons per million.
  • Delhi also stands 1st in per capita Corona deaths with nearly 36 deaths caused by Corona per million persons.

Air Travel Analysis

  • It is well known that Corona Virus has flown to India and it makes it more important to look at its penetration and its severity in the light of air travel.
  • The top 5 states in terms of maximum International air travel are Delhi, Maharashtra, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka respectively.
  • The top 5 states in terms of maximum International air travel as % of Total population are Delhi, Goa, Kerala, Chandigarh and Telangana respectively.
  • The top 5 states in terms of maximum Domestic air travel are Delhi, Maharashtra, Karnataka, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu respectively.
  • The top 5 states in terms of maximum Domestic air travel as % of Total population are Goa, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Delhi, Chandigarh and Lakshadweep respectively.
  • The top 5 states in terms of maximum Total air travel are Delhi, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal respectively.
  • The top 5 states in terms of maximum Total air travel as % of Total population are Goa, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Delhi, Chandigarh and Lakshadweep respectively.
  • It may be noted here that Lakshadweep, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Chandigarh and Goa have a very small population of 64,473; 3,80,581; 10,55,450 and 14,58,545 respectively and all three except Chandigarh attract a large number of tourists visiting these states from different parts of the world elevating their per capita numbers, which may explain their position at top in air travel and not in Corona Infections / Deaths.
  • The following graph compares the per capita Corona Infections and per Capita Corona Deaths with International as well as domestic air travel expressed as % of Total population.
Air travel, Corona Infections and Corona Deaths
  • Here darker color indicates International air travel as % of Total population whereas lighter color indicates Domestic air travel as % of Total population.
  • The summation of both indicates Total air travel as % of Total population.
  • The states are sorted for per Capita Corona Infections or per Capita Corona Deaths as mentioned in the title moving left to right.
  • All the top 5 infected states have higher rate of International air travel as % of Total population than national average except Gujarat at 3.44% (national average being 4.84%).
  • All the top 5 infected states have higher rate of Domestic air travel as % of Total population than national average except Gujarat at 17.27% (national average being 19.44%).
  • All the top 5 infected states have higher rate of Total air travel as % of Total population than national average except Gujarat at 20.71% (national average being 24.28%).
  • All the bottom 5 states in terms of per Capita Corona Infections have no International air travel whatsoever.
  • All the bottom 5 states in terms of per Capita Corona Infections except Lakshadweep have lesser Domestic air travel as % of Total population than the national average (this may be explained by higher tourism traffic in Lakshadweep).
  • All the bottom 5 states in terms of per Capita Corona Infections have lesser Total air travel as % of total population than the national average except Lakshadweep.
  • All the bottom 12 states in terms of per Capita Corona Deaths have lesser International air travel as % of Total population than the national average except Goa (All the states except Goa and Manipur have no international air travel whatsoever).
  • All the bottom 12 states in terms of per Capita Corona Deaths except Lakshadweep, Manipur, Goa, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Tripura have lesser Domestic air travel as % of Total population than the national average.
  • All the bottom 12 states in terms of per Capita Corona Deaths except Lakshadweep, Manipur, Goa, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Tripura have lesser Total air travel as % of Total population than the national average.

Urban Population and Waste Generation Analysis

  • Top 5 urbanized states (in terms of maximum Extended UA Population as % of total population) are Delhi, Chandigarh, Kerala, Maharashtra and Gujarat.
  • Top 5 states generating maximum per capita Waste are Delhi, Chandigarh, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu.
  • The following graph shows Extended UA Population as % of total population and per Capita Waste Generation as against per Capita Corona Infections and per Capita Corona Deaths.
Urbanization, Waste Generation, Corona Infections and Corona Deaths
  • The above graph is sorted for Corona Infections; the left ones having the maximum Infections and the right ones having the minimum.
  • The color coding shows number of Corona Deaths as shown in top right corner.
  • All the top 5 states in terms of per Capita Corona Infections have more Extended UA Population as % of total population than the national average (13.45%).
  • All the top 5 states in terms of per Capita Corona Deaths have more Extended UA Population as % of total population than the national average with only MP as an exception at 8.84%.
  • All the top 5 states in terms of per Capita Corona Infections generate more per Capita Waste per day than the national average (118.57 gram/day/person).
  • All the top 5 states in terms of per Capita Corona Deaths generate more per Capita Waste per day than the national average except MP at 88.45 gram/day/person.
  • All the bottom 5 states in terms of per Capita Corona Infections have less per Capita Waste Generation per day than the national average.
  • All the bottom 5 states in terms of per Capita Corona Infections have no Extended UA Population whatsoever.
  • All the bottom 12 states in terms of per Capita Corona Deaths have less per Capita Waste Generation per day than the national average.
  • All the bottom 12 states in terms of per Capita Corona Infections have no Extended UA Population whatsoever.

Analysis of Major cities

  • 26 cities have been shortlisted for a separate analysis.
  • The cities selected here are the million plus Extended UA from the top 10 states in terms of per Capita Corona Infections and per Capita Corona Deaths.
  • The cities are Delhi, Mumbai, Pune, Nashik, Nagpur, Aurangabad, Chennai, Coimbatore, Madurai, Tiruchirapalli, Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara, Rajkot, Chandigarh, Srinagar, Jaipur, Jodhpur, Kota, Indore, Bhopal, Jabalpur, Gwalior, Kolkata, Asansol and Hyderabad.
  • I t is revealed from the pie chart below that these 26 cities that they accommodate less than 10% of national population, yet more than 66% Infections are from these cities and more than 76% deaths have occurred in these cities.
26 cities: Population, Corona Infections and Corona Deaths
  • It is also revealed that these cities have higher rates of air travel too. More than 65% of domestic air traffic and more than 73% of international air traffic is from these cities.
26 cities: Population, Domestic Air Traffic and International Air Traffic
  • A similar study for the states of Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and West Bengal.
  • Their pie charts are self-explanatory.
Mumbai, Pune, Nagpur, Nashik and Aurangabad’s contribution to Maharashtra in terms of Population, Corona Infections and Corona Deaths
Chennai, Coimbatore, Madurai and Tiruchirapalli’s contribution to Tamil Nadu in terms of Population, Corona Infections and Corona Deaths
Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara and Rajkot’s contribution to Gujarat in terms of Population, Corona Infections and Corona Deaths
Indore, Bhopal, Gwalior and Jabalpur’s contribution to Madhya Pradesh in terms of Population, Corona Infections and Corona Deaths
Jaipur, Jodhpur and Kota’s contribution to Rajasthan in terms of Population, Corona Infections and Corona Deaths
Kolkata and Asansol’s contribution to West Bengal in terms of Population, Corona Infections and Corona Deaths
  • Hence, urban ecosystem and lifestyle are more vulnerable to such diseases.

Correlations Study

  • All the parameters were studied and following Correlation Factors were found.
Correlation Factors
  • All the Correlation factors are positive for various air travel related parameters as well as per Capita Waste Generation per day and Extended UA population as % of total population with per Capita Corona Infections and per Capita Corona Deaths except one as shown in the table above.

Conclusions, Inferences and explanations

  • The present report concludes that there is a direct Correlation between air travel and Infections.
    • Unnecessary and frequent long distance movements result not only in more vulnerability to diseases, but also in increase in pollution and loss in foreign currency because of higher costs of oil import, processing and distribution.
  • The present report also concludes that urban population is more vulnerable to diseases because of myriads of reasons ranging from less green cover to more pollution to less hygienic lifestyle to consumption of processed, stored and stale foods as against raw and pure foods to a lifestyle not warranting exercises to social seclusion to higher population density and a lot more.
  • The Correlations Study also concludes that higher population density is more vulnerable to such diseases, which also points out towards the unsustainability of urban lifestyle.
  • The Correlations Study also concludes that the states having higher NSDPs also record higher Infections and Deaths.
    • Most of the modern day production activities are highly polluting and are often attained by the destruction of natural ecosystems and forest habitations making the overall health poor.
  • The previous report was published with the data of 1st May, 2020 and the present report is being published with the data of 4th June, 2020, between which, there has been mass migration.
    • The mass migration may result in inaccurate statistical findings as a great number of people have been crossing state borders.

Recommendations from Phases 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3

  • It is strongly recommended that the economic policies are thoroughly revamped.
  • Cities having more population than one million are not worth living as proven by the present and many other studies.
    • Hence an immediate and urgent action is necessary to stop further expansion of cities.
    • It is also very important to decongest the existing big cities.
  • It is strongly recommended that urgent forestation is taken up.
  • Today most of the household chores are done by machines making the life void of any physical exercises weakening the metabolism and immunity.
    • This also results in higher electricity consumption, higher pollution and hence higher risk.
    • It is recommended to discourage the use of such equipments and apparatus and encourage people to work with their hands.
  • Many production efforts are today driven by automation resulting in lesser jobs, more electricity consumption and more pollution.
    • It is strongly recommended to discourage the industrial production efforts in the segments like textile, furniture, agricultural equipments, utensils, thermalwear, agro – processing etc and encourage the artisans to take up such work so as to create more jobs, de – clog the cities and reduce pollution.

Acknowledgements

This report was jointly prepared by Mr Pranav Ravani, Ms Shobita Shetty, Mr Gopal Trada, Mr Hitesh Algotar, Mr Akil Kumar Hirapara, Mr Hardik Sarsavadiya Mr Jayantibhai Patel and Mr Ashutosh Jani.

References

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